MUDAJAYA - Who Dare to Catch this Golden Goose?

MUDAJAYA GROUP BERHAD

 SINCE 1965
I first came accross Mudajaya when it was heavily debated in i3 for seriously quite some time. As it involved a group of investors questioning the credibility of KYY who has recommended this company back in 2012 (?), all due to the India IPP project which has been delayed, delayed...and delayed.. If you want to know a little more about the past history, you may refer to KYY's blog. 
As a mature investors, i think is our routine to read all available info and digest it our own.
A very kind Angel, who has highlighted several important points from recent AGM, which spark my interest to look into this company. Here are her links:
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/78647.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/78700.jsp
http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kianweiaritcles/78714.jsp

THE STORY:
First, i try to google see where is the power station located. It is located at Uchipinda Village, India


"According to a 2014 ICRA investment report on the project, the delays were "due to land compensation related issues and later due to delay in securing funding for cost overruns," as well as with problems in coal block allocation. The project cost had been revised to Rs. 8981 crore from Rs. 6654 crore, and the planned commissioning was 2015."
So, now we rougly know what are the likely reason causing the thing to delay in early stages. 
Now, Let look at the cost:

budget: 665,361 lacs
latest: 1,037,733 lacs
up to year2012-13, budget used 549,214 lacs, balance 116,147 lac
year 13 - 14 , over budgeted by 255,521 lacs
year 14 -15 march, over budgeted by 119,057 lacs
Balance to latest estimate over budgeted cost: 113,941 lacs <== to appear in FY 2015 Q3 to Q4?? I do not know.

WHAT INTEREST ME?

1) Unit 1 is ready 
2) Unit 2,3, 4 almost complete?
3) If the hen are ready to lay golden egg, why not wait for a little while? THis is my thought. 

What Puzzle Me?


When the IPP are still on footing stage..share at all time high...But when the concrete building are up and unit 1 ready to run...the share price at all time low !!!

Yes, because of bad financial report!
Well, if i would to relate the above figures with the over budgeted cost above, the timing seem quite tally. But i do not know if the loss is really due to india as Angle did mentioned that cost over run is for "local" project. 

INDIA
The prospect, India is coming up at 7% GDP growth. Pace very similar with China


The demand for electricity: HIGH


Coal fired Thermal IPP still the main focus:



I noticed this: Mudajaya power plant is right fall at plan-12th (2012 - 2016)



But, i notice also some over achieved target as per below. Probably this is also part of the reason contributing to the delay for unit-1 commission date.

As of August 2015, Mudajaya power plant has still not commissioned yet as per below:

==> Plan target by March 2016, 2 units up running!
Again, plan can be delayed again. ..
But the great news is, it is certainly in the plan: Can see Unit-1 in the list below


If you love to read all related info, you may refer to the link below:
http://www.cea.nic.in/new_website/reports/monthly/executivesummary/2015/exe_summary-08.pd
http://www.cea.nic.in/new_website/reports/monthly/generation/2015/August/tentative/opm_07.pdf
http://www.cea.nic.in/new_website/reports/quarterly/tpmii_quarterly_review/2015/tpmii_qr-07.pdf
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Uchpinda_power_station#cite_note-3

My conclusion: 
I do not know if you agree with me with the above investment strategy:: To buy a fallen Angel, and hope it will turn Angel again! "Just give her a little more time!" - I'm saying this to myself and thanks Angel. :-)

Cheers
YiStock
24 Oct 2015

PLEASE TAKE NOTE THAT THIS IS NOT A RECOMMEDATION TO BUY!!!!! 

 

ALL FIGURES and PICTURES / DATA PENDING VERIFICATION!!! I'm not insider and i do not know if my assumption is reliable or not. Thank you